Readers know that every 6 weeks, the “style-box” update is posted to this blog.
What’s interesting about the 12/31 data is that – for the first time since 2022 – “ ” has started to outperform “ ”, and it’s started in the small-cap asset class.
Look at the third section down in the above spreadsheet and note how “ ” has outperformed since 11/15/2025.
Again, “growth” has smoked “value” for the last 12 quarters in terms of total return and growth beat value across all three asset classes (large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap) for those twelve quarters, until this last quarter of 2025. In the 6 years from 2020 to 2025, value only beat growth during the Covid-afflicted years of 2021 and 2022.
Is it a meaningful shift ? Don’t know yet. Does it portend a broader change in style performance for the broader equity market? Don’t know yet.
But, growth has outperformed for a long period of time, without value beating the growth returns, until this last quarter in small-cap.
It certainly bears watching, particularly as commodities are really heating up, including the oil and gas sector after the Venezuela events of last weekend.
International had a breakout versus the US in 2025.
All this is evidence of the shifting landscape in the broader equity market performance picture.
Conclusion
Again, it’s probably too early to draw a conclusion that would warrant a tectonic shift in portfolio positioning towards small-cap value, but the growth outperformance trend may be starting to wane, which could impact the major indices like the and .
Another update will be forthcoming in mid-February ’26.
Disclaimer: None of this is advice or a recommendation but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This data will likely be updated around mid-February ’26.
Thanks for reading.
Small-Cap Value Shows First Signs of Leadership After Long Growth Run
