The main point I want to make here is that this is all so dumb and I hate it. Kalshi, a commodities futures exchange registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, offers contracts on various unconventional commodities like election outcomes and football games. Last month you could buy futures contracts on commodities like a Coinbase Global Inc. representative saying the words “prediction market” or “Bitcoin” or “Web3” on its third quarter earnings call. Why? I don’t know. To hedge your risk that Coinbase wouldn’t say those words? To help people understand and price the future states of the world in which Coinbase did or didn’t say those words? Because you were bored and liked to gamble, probably.
At 9 a.m. last Thursday, “Bitcoin” was trading at about a 92% probability. Coinbase is a crypto exchange, Bitcoin is the biggest cryptocurrency, that makes sense. “Prediction market” was trading at about 71%. Prediction markets are hot right now and you might have guessed that Coinbase was thinking about them. “Web3” was trading at about 15%. “Web3” is definitely a thing that crypto people said a lot in, like, 2022, but not so much recently. These probabilities all seem pretty reasonable.
Coinbase Said Web3
