2026 market calls already laced with ‘Buy, but…’

LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) – As consensus forms around next year’s investment outlook, it’s hard to find many outright stock market bears. Yet an economic mix not seen for more than half a century means few forecasts come without serious qualifiers.
The biggest puzzle of 2025 is transpiring to be less about how markets shrugged off U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff warand more about how the artificial intelligence investment boom has managed to accelerate without creating many jobs.
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As economists at JPMorgan insist, the juxtaposition of an AI-led capex explosion and stalling labor market has not been evident in any U.S. expansion for the past 60 years.
AI itself, and the modest productivity gains it has delivered so far, may offer a partial answer to the conundrum. Immigration trends and the halt to the supply of workers have also dragged heavily on new employment.
Many still fear the economy could tip either way. Even so, there’s a tendency to lean on – albeit slowing – capex spending as a reason for optimism about 2026.
Bulls argue that most AI infrastructure spending should be covered by firms’ cash earnings, that stock prices should continue to benefit from that build‑out, and that the