Since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out in the summer of 2022, some overheated parts of the country—particularly in the West, Southwest, and Southeast—have experienced home price declines from their peak (see this map). While many of these markets have seen only modest drops, a few metro areas, such as Cape Coral and Austin, have undergone what I’d consider “material” home price corrections, falling -19.1% and -27.8%, respectively, from their peaks.
These regional home price declines raise the question: How many mortgage borrowers are actually “underwater” right now?
To find out, ResiClub once again reached out to ICE Mortgage Technology—formerly known as Black Knight, before it was acquired by Intercontinental Exchange for $11.8 billion in 2023.
2.1% —> The share of outstanding U.S. homeowner mortgages with negative equity* (i.e. underwater) at the end of December 2025, according to data from ICE Mortgage Technology provided to ResiClub this week. Back in December 2024, that figure was 1.3%.
23.0% —> The share of outstanding homeowner mortgages with negative equity (i.e. underwater) at the end of September 2009, according to Cotality/FirstAmerica.
Why, on a nationally aggregated basis, are there still not many homeowners underwater despite home price declines in some markets?
These 15 housing markets have the most borrowers underwater
