October’s reputation for volatility remains intact.
Early enthusiasm for the earnings season took a step back on trading down, and today, on . Once again, the VIX led the volatility, shooting up to 19.3 pre-market, then dropping a whole point into the open, then rising to 18.75, taking the pace out of gains, then falling to 18.1, allowing the market to bounce.
Earnings have become a bit more mixed. Tesla (TSLA) had a beat on the top and a slight miss on the bottom. The shares traded as low as -5.5% and recovered to -3.5% (+4.8% YTD). The company has a sky-high P/E because it’s being valued in a big way on the future of autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. T-Mobile (TMUS) had small beats top and bottom, with continued growth in subscribers. The shares opened flat and then dropped 3.4% and are almost flat YTD. Blackstone (BX) had a miss on the top and a solid beat on the bottom. The shares are opened flat, then traded down 4.8% (-10.7% YTD). Honeywell (HON) had solid beats top and bottom. The shares are up 6.9% (-2.4% YTD). Union Pacific (UNP) had a small miss on the top and a beat on the bottom. The shares opened to a small gain, then moved down 2.1% (-3.3% YTD). Tonight, we’ll get .
On the commodity front, has bounced 2.4% to $4,162/oz, and silver is up 2.6%. Copper has moved up 2.3% to $5.10/oz. is up 5% to $61.40/bbl on the news of new sanctions on Russian oil, including threats of sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil. Natural gas is flat. Crypto has moved up modestly to $109.8K.
Interest rates have moved higher with the US 10-year up 4 bps to 3.99%, the 2-year up 2bps to 3.46%. Bets for a series of cuts into early 2026 are a bit softer, but October and December cuts are more or less assured. The is slightly higher, almost reaching 99.
Volatile October Continues as Mixed Earnings Keep Markets on Edge
