Since 1958 the average return (not including dividends) for the is 9.16%, but the average return for midterm years is only 1.38%.
Historically, the first couple of quarters are notably weak. Q1 and Q2 have finished positive only 35% and 41% respectively. While Q2 and Q3 have been the weakest quarters on average. (See attached charts)
Doesn’t mean we can’t have a good year, but investors should probably manage expectations. Especially early on.
This article was originally published on The Macro Compass. Come join this vibrant community of macro investors, asset allocators and hedge funds – check out which subscription tier suits you the most using this link.
Why the S&P 500 Often Struggles Early in Midterm Years
